My odds of improving

By Blaine Lam


It’s that time of year that I feel, with 100 percent certainty, I am going to be a better person come January 1. My favorite saying, then, is “I never view January 1st with indifference.” With such high hopes, how could I?

My problem, of course, is that it’s difficult to say just HOW things are going to get better. After all, studies show that somewhere between 9 and 15 percent of new year’s resolutions are kept -- and that, no doubt, includes the numbers of the very committed. Then, there’s the statistical evidence that people are only able to predict the future with 2 percent accuracy. So, if my math is correct -- .02 x .12 (median of 9 to 15) -- I’ve got about 24 chances out of 10,000 of telling you what I’m going to do in 2009.

Whatever the odds, I figure if I’m going to take a serious run at a) changing my future and b) predicting the change, then it makes sense to depart from my informal and merely hopeful ways of the past, and put this matter to more scientific analysis than I have in prior years.

So I called researchers at Michigan State University and Western Michigan University, and they agreed to provide me with an estimate. And then I remembered: I had seen a study somewhere which revealed that 98 percent of all studies are done by, or on behalf of, people who make their living doing studies. Which means they have a conflict of interest.

So, I thought: I’ll do the study myself.

A word about my academic credentials. I was graduated from the University of Colorado with a 2.000 grade point average. I got D’s in statistics, math, accounting and finance, but A’s and B’s in a variety of marketing courses, which means this study may not be that statistically significant, but there’s a chance you’re really going to like it.

Here’s how the study is going to work. Experts, tell us, of course, that writing down our goals increases our chances of achieving them. So, I’m going to write them down. Then, in 12 months -- you’ll still be here, right? -- I’ll report which goals I’ve achieved. And to make the study quantifiable, I’ll just make two resolutions, so that my success rate will be 100 percent, 50 percent or 0.

Simple enough? Fair enough? Here goes, then:

1) Resolved, I will remember (for the first time ever if I am successful) what
this year’s resolutions were; and
2) Resolved, I will report my findings (success rate).

Granted, if the experiences of the last 40 years or so are a guide, life may very well get in the way of my ability to achieve these goals. But at least I’ve raised the bar from a quantifiable point of view. And, although I once saw a study which showed that 65 percent of all studies are challenged by people with superior academic credentials, and that 70 percent of all studies only confirm what we already know (diabetes is linked to obesity; caffeine keeps you awake; teens are trouble) and that the other 30 percent are repeat studies (diabetes is linked to obesity), and that 48 percent of all studies are contradicted by findings in other studies, I could very well be 100 percent successful in 2009.

I’m telling you, there’s a chance.